Anthropic's IPO plan hit a valuation wall on November 6. Reuters reports that prospective investors consider the $1.5 trillion valuation too high, and the roadshow scheduled to start next week may not kick off as planned. As recently as September, Anthropic was seeking a valuation of up to $2 trillion; two months later, even $1.5 trillion is seen as too rich, and pricing power is shifting from the issuer to the buyers. On November 1, the pre-IPO contracts market had pushed the valuation to $1.9 trillion; the mood has now flipped completely.
Price is at the heart of the disagreement. One investor has floated participating only at a $1 trillion valuation, and investors want a steeper discount, arguing that Anthropic is still losing money while burning large amounts of cash to expand its AI infrastructure. The updated S-1 filing is missing October revenue figures, and investors are waiting for those numbers before deciding. The Wall Street Journal has reported similar skepticism. The offering is estimated at up to $100 billion, and if the pricing talks fail, the whole timetable will slip.
Why Now
The midterm elections made things worse: 43 data-center bans were passed, triggering the sharpest tech selloff in a year, with AI stocks hit first. If share prices stay under pressure, Anthropic may delay the offering, and a delay would further shake confidence in the AI sector. For now, though, this is a valuation standoff, not a withdrawal: issuers and investors are arguing over price, not over whether the company should go public. The deadlock also reflects a bigger picture: Anthropic's future compute spending commitments are already close to $900 billion, and investors want a margin of safety for that bill.
Three things matter next: whether the roadshow starts on schedule next week; whether Anthropic fills in the October revenue figures; and where the valuation ultimately lands between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion. Whichever settles first will reprice what could be the largest tech IPO in history.
