Ensemble Forecasting
Ensemble forecasting explains a core weather-prediction method: run dozens of slightly varied versions of the same forecast and read the spread, so typhoon tracks, rainstorm odds and forecast confidence come from a distribution, not a single line.
Numerical forecasts are highly sensitive to initial observations: a small error can grow for days. Ensemble forecasting perturbs the initial conditions and physics slightly and runs dozens of members at once, then reads where they agree and where they split. Tight agreement means confidence; an early split means the weather is hard to pin down. Fengqing V1.0 and the ECMWF ensemble build on this idea, delivering an answer plus its credibility.
